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Investing.com -- Citi analysts have maintained their 2025 semiconductor sales forecast of an 8% year-over-year increase, despite April sales falling below seasonal expectations. 

Citing a belief in a "below-seasonal 2H25 driven by a tariff-induced correction," Citi has named Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) and Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) as their top picks in the sector.

Highlighting their rationale for top picks, Citi stated, "Our top picks are ADI and TXN as we believe they are the most defensive names during a downturn." Other Buy-rated names in their coverage include AVGO, MCHP, MU, and NXPI.

Meanwhile, the bank says April’s monthly semiconductor sales reached $55.0 billion, an 11.1% month-over-month decline, which was "below seasonality of down 10.0% MoM but in line with our estimate," according to Citi. 

This dip was primarily attributed to "weaker Microprocessor and DRAM sales." Despite the monthly decline, April sales are said to have showed a robust "23.2% YoY" increase, aligning with Citi’s forecast.

Assessing the data closer, Citi noted that April units, excluding discretes, were down 7.8% month-over-month, but "above seasonality of down 9.7% MoM due to above-seasonal Flash and Microprocessor units." 

Average Selling Prices (ASPs), excluding discretes, were reportedly down 3.2% month-over-month, yet "above our estimate of down 5.3% MoM."

Citi is holding firm on its full-year 2025 semiconductor sales forecast of $675.3 billion, driven by expected "seasonal growth in 1Q25 and 2Q25, and below-seasonal growth in 3Q25 and 4Q25 due to a tariff-induced correction." 

The firm expects units and ASPs (excluding discretes) to both see a 4% year-over-year increase.

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