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- Bitcoin traders focus on a major week of U.S. economic data that could shape its direction into year-end

- Fed policy signals and labor-market figures may trigger sharp volatility around key price levels

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: $BTC ) traders are preparing for a volatile stretch as the Federal Reserve's rate decision and a cluster of labor-market indicators converge to shape the crypto market's direction. Bitcoin trades near levels that often precede sharp swings, and the upcoming macro releases could determine whether the asset extends its recent strength or faces renewed pressure.

Policy Shifts Steer Market Positioning

The primary driver is the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee. CME Group estimates show that markets are placing a high probability of a rate cut and traders are positioning themselves around the expected change to a more accommodative policy. After a slight shakeout over the weekend, Bitcoin has remained above the $90,000 mark, which confirms that the relaxed financial environment helps to support broader risk sentiment.

However, according to many analysts, the decision will not be the only one that defines the next move of Bitcoin. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to have a greater impact with his guidance. His remarks on inflation and economic momentum historically have an impact on crypto markets, with traders adjusting exposure in response to indications regarding further tightening or relaxation.

More impact will be made by remarks by other Fed officials who will speak later during the week. Their remarks may clarify how policymakers interpret incoming data, extending the macro impact beyond Wednesday's decision.

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Labor Indicators Shape Bitcoin's Near-Term Path

Job-market readings will play a critical role. Economists expect job-openings data to show little change from the previous month. Strong numbers may reduce the urgency for policy easing, which could restrain Bitcoin's near-term upside. Softer readings may encourage more accommodative expectations but also spark caution if investors view the data as a sign of weakening economic momentum.

Initial unemployment claims are expected to increase, and any major deviation between predictions and forecasts. Significant deviation can cause severe repricing in any asset category because labor data is a proxy of economic well-being and central banks make decisions based on it.

Bitcoin can also take advantage of indications of long-term resilience, but this information can also be used to argue in favor of a slower pace of rate reductions. The weakness may justify the case of additional easing but may also push investors towards less risky assets.

Analysts Outline Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Market Analysts are still split on the next big move. Trader CrypNuevo expects a possible retest of the 50-day exponential moving average at around $95,500, with liquidity zones in the $94,500 to $95,300 range, which may be attractive for shorts. He argues that Bitcoin is still not on a strong base to hold for long positions, where the low-$80,000 range remains on the table if selling intensifies.

Others maintain a more constructive outlook. Michaël van de Poppe highlights strong buy-side activity at recent lows and suggests that holding above $92,000 could pave the way for a route towards $100,000 before 2026. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades points out the $84,000 as the level for bulls to hold. Losing that support could mean a retest of the April lows and a wider breakdown in market structure.

Network economist Timothy Peterson further adds to the fact that Bitcoin may strengthen up to year-end, while Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson anticipates a more neutral end to 2025. He notes that Bitcoin has already experienced 171 negative trading days in the year, compared to approximately 170 on average throughout its history, which suggests a sideways end to the year unless deeper corrections emerge in 2026.