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- Wood says institutional inflows may break Bitcoin's historic four-year halving cycle

- Bitcoin now behaves as a risk-on asset while gold takes the risk-off role, Wood says

- Standard Chartered claims ETFs have reduced the halving cycle's impact on pricing

Cryptoprowl /Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated this week that Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: $BTC ) long-observed four-year cycle may no longer define market behavior, arguing that the asset's structure has shifted as institutional participation rises. Speaking in an interview with Fox Business, she stated that Bitcoin's historical pattern of deep drawdowns followed by post-halving rallies is likely to change as larger market participants assume a greater share of activity. Her comments arrive as analysts reassess the influence of the April 2024 halving, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC.

Wood noted that Bitcoin's early-stage corrections often ranged between 75% and 90%, but she said that recent trading suggests reduced volatility. She attributed the shift to the presence of regulated institutions and investment firms that did not participate in previous halving cycles. According to Wood, this development could limit the magnitude of future downturns. She added that recent price action may have already marked the cycle's low, though she did not specify a timeline.

The halving mechanism historically concentrated supply shocks roughly every four years, with previous cycles marked by sharp price increases after reward reductions. Wood said institutional flows may now dilute that dynamic, altering how the market responds to similar supply constraints.

Bitcoin Viewed as Risk-On Rather Than Risk-Off

Wood also argued that Bitcoin is currently behaving as a "risk-on asset," moving more closely with broader economic sentiment. She contrasted that view with past episodes in which Bitcoin briefly served a defensive function, citing examples such as the European sovereign debt crisis and the U.S. regional banking stress in 2023.

She added that gold appears to be filling the risk-off role today, pointing to investor behavior during heightened geopolitical concerns.

Other Institutions Share Similar Expectations

Ark Invest has continued to expand exposure to the sector, adding positions in Coinbase (NASDAQ: $COIN ), Circle (NYSE: $CRCL ), and the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) in late November. Wood's assessment echoes research published earlier this week by Standard Chartered.

In a note, analyst Geoffrey Kendrick wrote that the arrival of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs has weakened the relevance of the halving cycle as a pricing model. He argued that the pattern of peaks roughly 18 months after each halving may no longer apply under new market conditions.