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Analysts at Australian investment bank Macquarie Group (OTC: $MQBKY ) are warning that crude oil prices could hit $200 U.S. per barrel if the war in Iran drags on.

Energy analysts at Macquarie say that if the war with Iran continues through the end of June, Brent crude oil, the international standard, is likely to reach $200 U.S. a barrel.

Such a level would be devastating for the global economy and lead to a sharp rise in inflation and higher interest rates to counter it, warns the bank.

The biggest risk to the oil market remains the closure of the Strait of Hormuz near Iran, where 20% of the world's crude flows between the Middle East and Asia.

"If the Strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand," said Macquarie in a note to clients.

For now, Macquarie has upgraded its forecast for year-end crude oil prices to $83 U.S. per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. standard.

That's up from a previous forecast of $58 U.S. by the end of 2026. Macquarie says its new outlook assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed in April but reopen by May.

The investment bank says its outlook is subject to change as the situation in the Middle East evolves in coming weeks and months.

While many commodities analysts are warning that crude oil prices could reach $150 U.S. a barrel, few are talking about the $200 U.S. level and what it could mean for the world economy.

MQBKY stock has gained 10% in the last 12 months to trade at $140.24 U.S. per share.